China skyline

What next for China?

Raleigh Addington
Raleigh Addington
editor at Chartwell Speakers

As most of the world learns to live with Covid, China continues to chart a different path.

Last week, I spoke to a friend in Shanghai who was entering his sixth week of lockdown. Lockdown in China means a very different thing to that experienced in most European countries. There are no allowances for daily outdoor exercise or supermarket visits. Some flats are actively sealed shut by the authorities and anyone unlucky to test positive is immediately carted off to central government quarantine. My friend was not at all bitter at being under these rigid restrictions. He has access to Western news sources beyond those easily accessible in Mainland China but believes the strict Chinese approach is justified.

This mindset is not always understood beyond mainland China. Expats in Hong Kong continue to predict that ‘Zero Covid’ will soon collapse and the region will follow its neighbours in liberalising a former hardline approach. But the sense of a battle against Covid being part of a wider ideological war is strongly ingrained amongst the Chinese government and citizens alike. China’s recent withdrawal as host of the 2023 Asian Cup, due to take place in summer next year, is a sign that there is no immediate end in sight to this approach.

Shanghai’s lockdown is due to ease slightly this week as daily case numbers fall back towards three figures. However, no country has tamed the Omicron variant. Beijing now faces the prospect of restrictions in the face of their own flare-up, while other less observed regions in China have been under on and off lockdowns for months on end.

This policy is not just a concern for China investors. Shanghai is the busiest seaport in the world and the city’s lockdown has been hugely disruptive for the world’s supply chains. Consumers, already grappling with rising food prices as a result of the Ukraine War, are soon likely to experience similar inflation as increasing costs for Chinese-made goods are passed onto them.

To help explain the likely direction of Chinese Covid policy over the coming year and its effects on the world economy, Chartwell recommends the following experts:

Matthew Klein headshot

Matthew Klein

Author of ‘Trade Wars are Class Wars’, former economics commentator at Barron’s and founder of The Overshoot, a premium service tracking the state of the world economy.

David Daokui

One of China’s pre-eminent economist and Mansfield Freeman Professor of Economics at Tsinghua University.

Tom Wright

Bestselling author and former Asia Economics Editor at the Wall Street Journal.

Jennifer Zhu Scott

Founder of Radian Investment Partners and Chinese finance expert.

Razeen Sally

Professor at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and global trade expert.

Andrew Sheng

Former Chief Adviser to the China Banking Commission and central banker with Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

If you are interested in booking any of the above speakers, please get in touch.

share