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US Midterms: Winners & Losers

Raleigh Addington
Raleigh Addington
editor at Chartwell Speakers

For weeks, pollsters and pundits predicted a Republican rout in the US Midterms. Biden’s approval rating was low and inflation was high.

But the Democrats defied these gloomy predictions. Their retention of the Senate means this ranks as the strongest incumbent performance since President Bush reaped a groundswell of post 9/11 support in 2002. What does the result mean for the US political landscape?


Will Biden run again in 2024? 

Biden was widely expected to be a one-term President. As the oldest US President to assume office at the age of 78, he was an interim unity candidate for the Democrats. However, the party’s strong showing in these elections will strengthen his case to run again in 2024. 


He will likely still face opposition from within his own party, who will be conscious of polling showing two-thirds of voters do not want him to seek re-election. But with no other compelling Democratic candidate emerging, will we see an 82-year-old Biden on the campaign trail in 2024? If so, who will he face?
 

Was this a referendum on President Trump? 

The midterms were seen as a bellwether of Trump’s enduring popularity and influence over the Republican party. By and large, his endorsed candidates failed to deliver. Mehmet Oz and Blake Masters lost senate elections in Pennsylvania and Arizona respectively. Herschel Walker faces a run-off in Georgia. 

Many Republicans put aside their own misgivings about Trump in the belief that he was a winner. If he becomes seen as a liability rather than asset, allegiances will quickly change. Particularly as a new stand-out Presidential candidate emerges…
 

A good night for DeSantis 

Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis, won a landslide reelection in what was traditionally a ‘swing state’. DeSantis’ decision to eschew Covid restrictions has largely been vindicated. Florida’s Covid-19 numbers were better than many states who implemented strict mandates and business and school closures. His rallying against ‘woke’ teaching in schools has also been popular with voters. 

DeSantis’ traditional appeal to Republican values of liberty and social conservatism is supplemented with an unTrumpian willingness to work across the aisle. He worked productively with President Biden after Hurricane Ian hit Florida last month. He also supported pay rises for teachers and new environmental regulations. 

DeSantis is now the bookmakers’ favourite to be the next US President. 


To discuss what these results mean for US politics and the world, Chartwell recommends:

Curtis Chin

Former US Ambassador to the Asian Development Bank

KT McFarland

Former Deputy National Security Advisor in the Trump Administration 

Anthony Gardner

Former US Ambassador to the EU

Ian Bremmer

Geopolitical analyst and founder of Eurasia Group

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