Writing in the Japan Times, Curtis S. Chin, the first Asia Fellow of the Milken Institute, makes the case that as “equity markets from Tokyo to New York enter more volatile times, it’s worth taking a pause to reflect on the need for continued capital market reforms, particularly in China.”
Using the example of Alibaba’s Initial Public Offering (IPO), New York equity markets have seemingly hit their peak and have been trending downward ever since. Curtis points out that the “storyline is no longer a straightforward one of China’s and Chinese companies’ rise.”
Curtis argues that as Alibaba’s listing took place in the United States, it “speaks volumes about how much further China must go to liberalize its capital markets and ensure greater domestic access to capital to finance further innovation.”
He goes on to say that whilst Jack Ma, founder and chief executive of Alibaba, may well be one of a kind in China for now, with the right policy environments he could well be one of many future Chinese entrepreneurs who become household names in and outside of their own country. To do this, Curtis believes that China needs to foster an “environment marked by rule of law and access to both domestic and international capital and financing.”
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Speaking at an afternoon panel at the 2014 Margaret Thatcher Conference on Liberty, General David Petraeus, the former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency; John Howard, the former prime minister of Australia; and Keyu Jin, a Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics considered the question, “After America, what?”.
Keyu contended that it was too early to talk about a post-America world order, and indeed is not talked about at all in China. “China is still a developing country,” she said, and the idea that it’s about to take over the United States is based upon “the wrong metrics” and a “misunderstanding.” “The U.S.’s GDP is twice that of China; China has a lot of time before it can catch up to the U.S.” As such, she concluded that there is a “distinction between [China’s] affecting the world economy and being able to drive it.”
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Nouriel Roubini, the economics professor who predicted the inflated US housing market would precipitate a worldwide financial crisis, has claimed that China’s economy will continue to grow rapidly until 2013, defying fears of a sharp slowdown and risk of overheating, at least in the near term.
Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, Nouriel is optimistic that “China is going to remain growing at a robust rate. We are worried about a Chinese hard landing but that may not materialize until after 2013,” he said.
Chartwell has worked with Nouriel Roubini in the past year. He is an expert speaker on global economics, and is currently professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, an economic consultancy firm.
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