Posted at January 14, 2015, by Raleigh Addington, Comments Off on Leading German economist Peter Bofinger discusses what’s in store for 2015
Listen to Leo von Bülow-Quirk, Chartwell’s Managing Director for Europe, in conversation with the influential German economist Peter Bofinger – a member of the elite German Council of Economic Experts (“die 5 Wirtschaftsweisen”) and a research fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London. He is also Professor for Monetary Policy and International Economics at the University of Würtzburg.
In this interview, Professor Bofinger shares his thoughts for the drivers of year ahead, commenting on:
• the outlook for the Germany economy for 2015.
• the ECB’s effectiveness with the continued policy of ultra-low interest rates and quantative easing.
• the risks and opportunities posed by the various European elections coming up in 2015 (UK, Spain, Greece…).
For more information on how to book Peter as a keynote speaker for your conference or client event, please get in touch with Leo von Bülow-Quirk at email@example.com or call on +44 (0) 20 7792 8000.
Posted at October 20, 2014, by Raleigh Addington, Comments Off on Adair Turner, an expert on the Chinese financial system, discusses how China can re-balance its economy
Writing for Project Syndicate,Adair Turner, a Senior Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking, has argued that in order to avoid another financial crisis China “needs to rebalance its economy and introduce more market discipline in its financial system.”
This opinion follows from the fact that industrial value added fell in August, credit growth has slowed dramatically, and housing prices are falling, with sales down 20% year on year. As such, Adair believes that China’s slowdown is the biggest short-term threat to global growth.
Adair notes that after unleashing a credit boom to tackle the 2008 financial crisis, “China is now struggling with a dilemma common to all advanced credit booms. The longer the boom runs, the greater the danger of wasted investment, huge bad debts, and a major financial crisis. But simply constraining new credit supply and allowing bad loans to default can itself provoke crisis and recession.”
Whilst optimists stress that “China is different,” despite the knowledge that no other economy has ever experienced such a boom and avoided major growth setback, Adair warns that risks remain serious.