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Yu Yongding, a Beijing insider and expert speaker on macroeconomic issues, examines China’s “repressed” SMEs

Yu Yongding speakerWriting for Project Syndicate, Yu Yongding, regarded by many as China’s pre-eminent monetary economist, reveals the underlying causes of high funding costs for Chinese businesses.

Yu asserts that although the State Council, China’s cabinet, made lowering funding costs for businesses, especially small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), a top priority earlier this year, efforts to lower such costs have had “a limited impact.” To counter this, Yu argues that the People’s Bank of China should engage in monetary-policy loosening.

Despite the danger of undermining China’s economic-restructuring effort, Yu believes that such an approach can “avoid the pitfalls by placing it within a broader, more comprehensive strategy that accounts for the underlying causes of the increase in funding costs for businesses.” He goes on to outline the fundamental factors that are driving up funding costs.

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For more information, or to book Yu Yongding as a keynote speaker for your conference or event, please contact Leo von Bülow-Quirk at leo@chartwellspeakers.com or call 0044 (0) 20 7792 8000.

Keyu Jin, the leading London-based economics speaker, outlines China’s “skewed” growth model

Keyu Jin speakerWriting in Project Syndicate, Keyu Jin, a professor of economics at the London School of Economics, makes the case that whilst economists have a reason to be worried about China’s economy, what many fail to recognise is that there is a single underlying problem: China’s “skewed” growth model.

Keyu argues that the “model is, to some extent, a policy-induced construct, the result of a deep-rooted bias toward construction and manufacturing as the leading drivers of economic development.” These large-scale manufacturing and infrastructure projects are encouraged by direct and indirect government subsidies, a model that carries considerable costs and locks “China in a vicious economic circle.”

According to Keyu, restructuring the economy is thus perhaps the most urgent challenge facing China’s leaders today. Given that the current distortions are interlinked, she believes that they may need to be addressed simultaneously.

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Adair Turner, an expert on the Chinese financial system, discusses how China can re-balance its economy

Adair TurnerWriting for Project Syndicate, Adair Turner, a Senior Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking, has argued that in order to avoid another financial crisis China “needs to rebalance its economy and introduce more market discipline in its financial system.”

This opinion follows from the fact that industrial value added fell in August, credit growth has slowed dramatically, and housing prices are falling, with sales down 20% year on year. As such, Adair believes that China’s slowdown is the biggest short-term threat to global growth.

Adair notes that after unleashing a credit boom to tackle the 2008 financial crisis, “China is now struggling with a dilemma common to all advanced credit booms. The longer the boom runs, the greater the danger of wasted investment, huge bad debts, and a major financial crisis. But simply constraining new credit supply and allowing bad loans to default can itself provoke crisis and recession.”

Whilst optimists stress that “China is different,” despite the knowledge that no other economy has ever experienced such a boom and avoided major growth setback, Adair warns that risks remain serious.

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For more information, or to book Adair Turner as a speaker for your conference or event, please contact Leo von Bülow-Quirk at leo@chartwellspeakers.com or call 0044 (0) 20 7792 8000.

Roger Bootle on the future of the British economy

Writing recently for the Telegraph, Roger Bootle, Managing Director of Capital Economics, believes that Britain could become the world’s fourth largest economy within decades, and that chances are the British economy will still be a major force in world affairs in 20 years’ time.

This follows the news that China is likely to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy faster than expected. Roger argues that such circumstances arise in part because China’s population is four times the size of the US population. Like China, he says, the Britain’s economic standing will be affected by population size.

Other factors, such as the upcoming Scottish Referendum, will also affect the future of the British economy. Roger asserts that if “Scotland votes for independence, the UK will immediately lose about 10pc of GDP and, accordingly, slip down the rankings quite a way. None of this would imply that people in the rest of the UK would be any worse off – at least not directly. Indeed, they may even be better off. But it would reduce the UK’s weight in the world.”

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For information on Roger’s speaking availability, please contact our Managing Partner, Leo von Bülow-Quirk, at leovbq@chartwellpartners.co.uk or call +44 (0) 20 7792 8000

Adair Turner on the future of the Chinese economy

Adair Turner speaker

Adair Turner, Senior Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking and former Chairman of the FSA, delivered some fascinating insights on the future of the Chinese economy on Robert Peston’s BBC documentary “How China Fooled the World”. He traced the rapid rise of China’s shadow banking system and argued that, though you’d have to be brave to bet against China’s ability to manage problems, the sheer rapidity of credit growth  in China since the financial crisis suggests a crash could be on its way.

You can listen to Adair’s 2014 global economic outlook below:

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For more information, or to book Adair Turner as a keynote speaker for your conference or event, please contact Leo von Bülow-Quirk at leo@chartwellspeakers.com or call 0044 (0) 20 7792 8000.

Nouriel Roubini: “China’s explosive growth to continue in near term”

Nouriel Roubini, the economics professor who predicted the inflated US housing market would precipitate a worldwide financial crisis, has claimed that China’s economy will continue to grow rapidly until 2013, defying fears of a sharp slowdown and risk of overheating, at least in the near term.

Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, Nouriel is optimistic that “China is going to remain growing at a robust rate. We are worried about a Chinese hard landing but that may not materialize until after 2013,” he said.

Chartwell has worked with Nouriel Roubini in the past year. He is an expert speaker on global economics, and is currently professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, an economic consultancy firm.

For more information or to book Nouriel Roubini as a speaker, please contact Alex Hickman at alex@chartwellspeakers.com or call +44 (0) 20 7792 8004.

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