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Economic Pandemic

Covid 19 – Economic Consequences

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A curated list of articles written by some of our top speakers on the economic consequences of the Covid 19 Pandemic

As Covid-19 continues to spread across the globe, bringing businesses and life was we know it to a halt,  policymakers and politicians rush to provide resources and ways to cope in the short term.   Victims of this virus are many and the first concern is to save lives.   Not only are we are facing a major public health emergency but we are also witnessing an unfolding economic emergency.  A definite global economic fallout is happening simultaneously and this will be the second front in the war against this coronavirus.  In the months ahead, there will be a need to rebuild and rebound from this economic fallout.

Chartwell’s world-class speakers can shed light on what is happening now and they can share their ideas and expertise on how we will  recover in due course – see articles and videos below in date order.

Mauro F. Guillén is Professor at Wharton and is one of the world’s foremost experts on global trends and is the author of the ‘2030 AD: How Today’s Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything” (August 2020).  In early March, he launched a globally available online only course  on the unfolding business impacts of coronavirus, this was widely reported in the media.

Willem Buiter understands Covid-19 outbreak’s implications for the global economy. Buiter analyzes how the US economy is deteriorating at a fast rate due to the decrease in consumer demand. He also states that ignoring such a financial fallout from the pandemic will only lead to further damage in the real economy.

Bill Emmott has shared his extensive knowledge on how corporations should respond to the Covid-19 virus. Noting that the pandemic raises questions from medicine to economics, to tourism to business supply chains, Emmott states there is one big and important question; one that concerns the nature and quality of China’s government.

Tina Fordham,(Twitter) Partner and Head of Global Political Strategy at Avonhurst, stated that the pandemic will create unprecedented challenges for global leaders and the financial market. Fordham shares that the pandemic is changing the 2020 outlook economically, societally and within the financial markets. It is important to assess the impacts of this crisis that is possibly worse than the 2008 financial crash. She shares that this pandemic will affect the U.S. Presidential elections, as well as Brexit.

Wolfgang Münchau founder of EuroIntelligence, author and Eurozone columnist at the FT, shares his expert economic opinions and suggests ways the ECB and other EU institutions must respond to this economic meltdown.

Maurice Obstfeld  Chief Economist of the IMF (2014-2019) advises that the global economy is already in a recession.

Margaret O’Mara  (Twitter) is Professor of History at the University of Washington, specialising in the political and economic history. An internationally recognized expert on the history of Silicon Valley and the American technology industry, she is also a contributing writer for The New York Times.

Jim O’Neill  is the Chair of Chatham House and former Chief Economist and Chairman of Goldman Sachs.   In a recent CNBC interview, he commended the fast response from the Chinese government to the virus outbreak, suggesting Western countries should look to emulate China, South Korea and Singapore in the “swift deployment of aggressive containment measures”.  O’Neill shares that G20 policymakers must tackle both the financial crisis and create a market incentive reward program to promote serious efforts by pharmaceutical companies to develop new drugs.

Gideon Rachman, (Twitter) Financial Times’ Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator has been reporting how the outbreak has been changing global politics. Rachman addresses in various  FT articles how international trade is suffering as much as international travel. He has been at the forefront of the effects of the virus; covering how health systems have been affected, and the contrast between rich or middle-income countries in comparison to poorer nations whose health systems are less-developed.

Martin Wolf, (Twitter) Associate Editor and Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times. Covering almost all aspects of the effects of Covid-19, Wolf addresses the world’s struggles to contain the pandemic. It is no shock that the virus will shock the world economy, forcing factories and businesses to shut down. As a leading economist, Wolf’s view is: “Think big. Act Now. Together”  so the global economy will survive.

 

RECENTS ARTICLES AND VIDEOS 

April 1 – 5:

Jim O’Neill: O’Neill shares the current Lessons of Covid-19 in The Article.

March 23 – 29:

Gideon Rachman: “When the pandemic passes, the most extreme barriers to travel will be lifted. But it is unlikely that there will be a full restoration of the globalised world, as it existed before Covid-19,” in Nationalism is a side effect of Coronavirus, featured in the Financial Times. 

Martin Wolf“To avert disaster, solidarity between countries must be as strong as within them.” Wolf discusses how the first pandemic in a century will go down historically in the Financial Times. 

Willem Buiter: The US economy is deteriorating at a rapid rate due to the lack of consumer demand. In the UK, the British government is looking at a deficit of at least 7.5% of GDP, and perhaps as high as 10%. Buiter gives a well analyzed overview of the global economy in Project Syndicate.

Jim O’NeillThe G20’s Pandemic Moment in Project Syndicate. World leaders convene virtually to formulate a response to the crisis in London.

Wolfgang Münchau: Nine countries can make a stand for sharing the fiscal burden of the pandemic. Münchau shares with the Financial Times that Go-it-alone eurozone ‘coronabonds’ are worth the risk.

March 16 – 22 : 

Margaret O’Mara: O’Mara recognises that there is “a fresh recognition and appreciation of the role of government in ensuring economic stability and opportunity” in The New York Times.

Gideon Rachman: How Beijing reframed the coronavirus response narrative in the Financial Times.

Willem Buiter: Monetary Policy cannot save us from this crisis. Buiter points out that we should be prepared for a steady slide into recession or worse. Monetary policy, under current circumstances, doesn’t have the ability to affect economic performance significantly, he shares on Project Syndicate.

Martin Wolf: Wolf’s piece in the Financial Times asserts that the pandemic could be a bigger economic threat than the financial crisis of 2008, and that although there is, as it is being seen, a drastic fall in activity in the first half of 2020, it is important to deal with the depression that threatens humanity and the economic infrastructure, and even more important that the government must manage economic and health consequences.

Tina Fordham: Fordham has commented on the economic and political fallout on the effects of Covid-19 and the response rate from policy makers live on Bloomberg News.

Maurice Obstfeld: Obstfeld says the global economy is already in a recession and joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the impact of Covid-19 and what can be done to mitigate its financial blow.

Bill Emmott: Emmott shares how corporations should respond to Covid-19. See here.

Wolfgang Münchau: Münchau shares that Europe needs a new scale of stimulus and cash, not credit in the Financial Times.

March 10 – 15: 

Willem Buiter: The Wealth and Health of Nations in Project Syndicate.

Jim O’NeillO’Neill praises China’s government’s virus response and suggests that Western governments dealing with outbreaks on their own should look to emulate China, South Korea and Singapore in the swift deployment of aggressive containment measures on CNBC.

March 9:

Jim O’NeillA Stress Test for Public Health Systems on Project Syndicate. 

March 1: 

Bill Emmott: After Coronavirus mistakes, tough for China gov’t to ease public anger in The Mainichi.

Feb 28: 

Gideon Rachman: How the Outbreak is Changing Global Politics

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