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Economic Pandemic

Post Covid-Economic Consequences

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A curated collection of content from some of our top speakers on the economic consequences of the Covid 19 Pandemic

Although Covid-19 continues to dominate our attention, we are starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel, many countries are beginning to focus again on work and on rebuilding the economy.     In the months ahead, we will need to rethink how we manage in this ‘new normal’ and how to rebound from this extraordinary period of crisis, globally. 

Chartwell’s world-class speakers can shed light on what is happening now and they can share their ideas and expertise  – see articles and videos below in date order.

Martin Wolf, (@martinwolf_)  Associate Editor and Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times.  His unique perspective and voice gives him an unparalleled perspective on European and global economies. He can speak with authority about the economic relationships underlying our complex financial systems, what we can learn from them, and what lies ahead for Europe, the US, and the rest of the world.

Lucrezia Reichlin – (@LucreziaReichli)  is considered as a leading economist in Europe, she Professor of Economics at the London Business School and Chairman & co-founder of Now-Casting Economics Ltd.  She is a columnist for the Italian national daily Il Corriere della Sera and a regular contributor of Project Syndicate.  She also sits on corporate boards.

Keyu Jin is a Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, is a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader.   She is an expert on globalisation, international finance and the Chinese economy

Andrew Sheng, a Distinguished Fellow of Asia Global Institute, University of Hong Kong and a member of the UNEP Advisory Council on Sustainable Finance, is a former chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. His latest book is From Asian to Global Financial Crisis.

Mauro F. Guillén is Professor at Wharton and is one of the world’s foremost experts on global trends and is the author of the ‘2030 AD: How Today’s Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything” (August 2020).  In early March, he launched a globally available online only course  on the unfolding business impacts of coronavirus, this was widely reported in the media.

Willem Buiter (@willem_buiter) is a globally known macro economist and Visiting Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University.  He spent the previous ten years as Global Chief Economist at Citigroup.  Prior to joining Citi, he taught at the London School of Economics and was a member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England.  He also worked at the EBRD.

David Pilling   (@davidpilling) is an Associate Editor and the Africa Editor of the Financial Times.  Previously, he was  their Asia Editor. David became known for his insightful coverage of business, economics and politics in China, India, Japan and across Asia more generally.   He is the author of ‘ The Growth Delusion’, listed for several book awards.

Bill Emmott has shared his extensive knowledge on how corporations should respond to the Covid-19 virus. Noting that the pandemic raises questions from medicine to economics, to tourism to business supply chains, Emmott states there is one big and important question; one that concerns the nature and quality of China’s government

Tina Fordham    (@TinaFordham1)   is Partner and Head of Global Political Strategy at Avonhurst.   She is known for her prescient analysis of  the Intersection of Geopolitics and Markets.  Previously, she was Managing Director, Chief Global Political Analyst, Citigroup (2003-2020).  On five occasions. she listed as one of the  Top 100 Most Influential Women in European Finance.

Chris Giles  (@ChrisGiles_)  is Economics Editor at the FT.  He provides an in-depth analysis on the global economy, the Brexit Debate and the Eurozone debt crisis.

Wolfgang Münchau  (@EuroBriefing)   founder of EuroIntelligence, author and Eurozone columnist at the FT, shares his expert economic opinions and suggests ways the ECB and other EU institutions must respond to this economic meltdown.

Maurice Obstfeld  Chief Economist of the IMF (2014-2019), Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley and listed among the most influential economists in the world according to IDEAS/RePEc.

Jim O’Neill  is the Chair of Chatham House and former Chief Economist and Chairman of Goldman Sachs.

Martin Sandbu (@MESandbu) is the Financial Times’s European Economics Commentator. He also write Free Lunch, the FT’s weekly newsletter on the global economic policy debate. He is the author of three books, the most recent of which is ‘The Economics of Belonging: A Radical Plan to Win Back the Left Behind and Achieve Prosperity for All’ (2020)

Richard Davies (@RD_Economist) is the author of ‘Extreme Economies’ and  is a fellow at the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance.   Previously, he was Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors at HM Treasury, Economics Advisor to George Osborne and Economics Editor, The Economist (2014-2016)

Dr. Gleb Tsipursky is an  internationally-renowned thought leader known as the Disaster Avoidance Expert, is on a mission to protect leaders from dangerous judgment errors known as cognitive biases by developing the most effective and profitable strategies for risk management, strategic planning, disaster avoidance, and decision making.

RECENTS ARTICLES AND VIDEOS  in date order;

July 1-15

Tina Fordham  As the US Elections are looming, Tina examines the growing uncertainty in markets and the growing concern for what may happen to the democratic process – in the FT 

June 1-30

Martin Wolf   In a sobering article ‘How Covid 19 Will Change The World, Martin lays out the fallout coming from this coming recession, the deepest in living memory, and it’s only beginning.

Jim O’Neill  In Project Syndicate, Jim explores how some countries are faring better than others in managing the economic consequences of Covid19 – he calls this the Pandemic Performance DifferentialMartin

Martin Sandbu. Martin outlines why a battle over the EU’s fiscal rules is looming

Dr. Gleb Tsipursky  explains the dangers of the normalcy bias that entrepreneurs experience when deciding how to reopen their companies after closures to reduce the spread of Covid-19. Here’s what he shared with INC.

May 4-22

Willem Buiter   Willem explores some of the profound changes we face in the years ahead and how Paying for the Covid-19 pandemic will be painful

Martin Sandbu – In this thought provoking article Martin suggests that current crisis may be an opportunity to restructure taxes and to reexamine the composition of budgets.

Martin Wolf   In this thought provoking short  Video Martin explores the very likely shape of the economy when the pandemic is over.   Some of the changes will be short term, others will be permanent.

Jim O’Neill  In this week’s copy of Caixen, Jim revisits the argument to target nominal GDP

April 26-30

Richard Davies   In Fortune, Richard outlines 5 lessons for the coronavirus recovery.

Martin Wolf  In this week’s thoughtful Opinion Piece, Martin sets out the need for capital markets to reform.   He says we cannot afford complacency and need to reassess the resilience of our economic, social and health arrangements. A focus on finance must be an important part of this effort.

April 20-24

Jim O’Neill In Project Syndicate this week, Jim is interviewed about a range of subjects including the possible path to economic recovery.  As always, his replies are informative and refreshingly direct.

Martin Wolf, in his weekly FT column shares his views and ideas on why the European Central Bank can save the Eurozone.    In his column today, he believes that maintaining the lockdown and saving the economy are mutually compatible as it is not a matter of protecting people ‘or’ the economy but of protecting people ‘and’ the economy

April 12-17

David Pilling asks if we should provide Africa debt relief as their governments desperately need financial breathing space to fight the pandemic –  Financial Times

Maurice Obstfeld  and Adam Posen have published a major new briefing/e-book from the Peterson Institute for International Economics – PIIE entitled How the G20 can hasten recovery from COVID-

Martin Wolf  In his must read weekly column, Martin analyses the current enormous economic upheaval and asks about how we will respond, and how we must put resources in place to avoid this happening again. Financial Times

Andrew Sheng in Vietnam News  this week argues that “there are four hard choices in this COVID war: moral, informational, political and economic.”

Jim O’Neill  in Project Syndicate this week warns against playing the blame game over China’s role and behaviour in recent months.    Jim has written for The Article about why we still need “People’s QE”

Wolfgang Munchau How the next Euro Crisis could Unfold – a thoughtful article on scenarios facing the EU – Financial Times

April 1 – 5:

Lucrezia Reichlin – in Project Syndicate, Lucrezia and other leading economists ask if Europe will lead or lag ?

Jim O’Neill: O’Neill shares the current Lessons of Covid-19 in The Article.

Chris GilesGlobal economy set for sharpest reversal since Great Depression in the Financial Times.  He also shares how Coronavirus outbreak will harm UK Data collection and statistics in the Financial Times.

Wolfgang Münchau: Germany’s testing success looks real – for now. “Germany is now conducting Covid-19 tests at a rate of 350,000 a week, having tested close to 1m out of a population of 80m so far”, featured in the Financial Times.

Matt Ridley: Ridley shares on how to beat the next pandemic, he recently wrote that in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, “We are about to find out how robust civilisation is” and that “hardships ahead will be like nothing we have ever known”. He shares this on Reason podcast. 

Martin Wolf: Wolf shares his personal coronavirus diaries, commenting on the pain of family separation in The Financial Times. Wolf also shares in the FT that though lockdowns are necessary to get the disease under control, they must be brief.

Keyu Jin.  As the global conversation escalates about China and it’s pivotal role in the current Covid crisis, Keyu Jin suggests that is the time to build trust, to cooperate rather than to pin blame or to focus on recriminations – Project Syndicate 

March 23 – 29:

Gideon Rachman: “When the pandemic passes, the most extreme barriers to travel will be lifted. But it is unlikely that there will be a full restoration of the globalised world, as it existed before Covid-19,” in Nationalism is a side effect of Coronavirus, featured in the Financial Times. Rachman also shares that “As the human and economic damage mounts, old political divides are likely to re-emerge”, featured in the Financial Times.

Martin Wolf“To avert disaster, solidarity between countries must be as strong as within them.” Wolf discusses how the first pandemic in a century will go down historically in the Financial Times. 

Willem Buiter: The US economy is deteriorating at a rapid rate due to the lack of consumer demand. In the UK, the British government is looking at a deficit of at least 7.5% of GDP, and perhaps as high as 10%. Buiter gives a well analyzed overview of the global economy in Project Syndicate.

Jim O’NeillThe G20’s Pandemic Moment in Project Syndicate. World leaders convene virtually to formulate a response to the crisis in London.

Wolfgang Münchau: Nine countries can make a stand for sharing the fiscal burden of the pandemic. Münchau shares with the Financial Times that Go-it-alone eurozone ‘corona bonds’ are worth the risk.

Andrew Sheng  in Project Syndicate this week outlines how we are in a war against a hidden enemy – but we must find a way forward.

March 16 – 22 : 

Gideon Rachman: How Beijing reframed the coronavirus response narrative in the Financial Times.

Willem Buiter: Monetary Policy cannot save us from this crisis. Buiter points out that we should be prepared for a steady slide into recession or worse. Monetary policy, under current circumstances, doesn’t have the ability to affect economic performance significantly, he shares on Project Syndicate.

Martin Wolf: Wolf’s piece in the Financial Times asserts that the pandemic could be a bigger economic threat than the financial crisis of 2008, and that although there is, as it is being seen, a drastic fall in activity in the first half of 2020, it is important to deal with the depression that threatens humanity and the economic infrastructure, and even more important that the government must manage economic and health consequences.

Tina Fordham: Fordham has commented on the economic and political fallout on the effects of Covid-19 and the response rate from policy makers live on Bloomberg News.

Maurice Obstfeld: Obstfeld says the global economy is already in a recession and joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the impact of Covid-19 and what can be done to mitigate its financial blow.

Bill Emmott: Emmott shares how corporations should respond to Covid-19. See here.

Wolfgang Münchau: Münchau shares that Europe needs a new scale of stimulus and cash, not credit in the Financial Times.

March 10 – 15: 

Willem Buiter: The Wealth and Health of Nations in Project Syndicate.

Jim O’NeillO’Neill praises China’s government’s virus response and suggests that Western governments dealing with outbreaks on their own should look to emulate China, South Korea and Singapore in the swift deployment of aggressive containment measures on CNBC.

Feb 28 – March 9:

Jim O’Neill:  In a recent CNBC interview, he commended the fast response from the Chinese government to the virus outbreak, suggesting Western countries should look to emulate China, South Korea and Singapore in the “swift deployment of aggressive containment measures”.  O’Neill shares that G20 policymakers must tackle both the financial crisis and create a market incentive reward program to promote serious efforts by pharmaceutical companies to develop new drugs.

Bill EmmottAfter Coronavirus mistakes, tough for China gov’t to ease public anger in The Mainichi.

Gideon Rachman: How the Outbreak is Changing Global Politics

Dr. Gleb Tsipursky Companies are preparing for coronavirus all wrong. Giving in to pessimism will actually help you get ahead. Tsipursky shares with Business Insider.  

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