I spent some of this morning at a client conference which included a very strong panel on the global economic outlook. One of the panellists was Howard Davies, former Deputy-Governor of the Bank of England, a founding head of the FSA and until 2011 Director of the LSE. The panel speculated about the outlook for the Eurozone (Greece leaves but the shock, possibly quite soon, forces the rest of the Eurozone into necessary fiscal integration); the US elections (the incumbent hangs on but the Republicans hold the House and win the Senate) and Iran (diplomacy prevails until 2013, but may be no longer). Watch Libya (destabilising) and Saudi Arabia (pushes up oil prices).