John Hulsman on black swans
Good to catch up this morning with Dr John Hulsman, the leading geopolitical analyst and writer who has swapped his base in Washington DC for Germany, from where he advises private firms and governments (including the Dutch Ministry on Foreign Affairs) on the geopolitical risks and opportunities coming (fast) down the track.
John and I talked about Obama’s re-election campaign, and his vulnerability to factors outside his control – John’s two black swans. These are, in no particular order, the threat of an Israeli strike on Iran in September (taking advantage of Obama’s immersion in a difficult election race); and the intensifying crisis in the Eurozone (as a Greek default looks more likely, the whole edifice is looking fragile – an uncontrolled collapse would likely wipe out America’s economic recovery).
As well as running for President, Obama is also running to be leader of the free world, and it is developments outside the US that threaten to knock his campaign off course, and even lose him the race.