In his most recent posting, James Crabtree, Mumbai Bureau Chief of The Financial Times, looks at the likelihood of a post-election economic upturn in India.

James shows that the business consensus overwhelmingly believes that opposition leader Narendra Modi is set to triumph in May’s voting, a view which has more to do with the unpalatable nature of the alternatives for Indian growth than a thorough analysis of his odds of victory. Nonetheless, as James points out, there are plenty of assumptions being made about how quickly a victory for Mr Modi is likely to filter through into higher investment, which seem at least questionable.

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