Sir John Gieve‘s expert analysis of PM Theresa May’s latest economic policies was quoted in The Telegraph this week:
“We’ve got a big shift in the style and nature of government – I thought Theresa May’s speech was quite an exceptional speech,” he said. “It was one of the first speeches I’ve heard from a Tory leader which scarcely made a nod towards lower taxation, a smaller state, deregulation, enterprise, incentives.”
Read the full article, Theresa May’s policies have ‘echoes of the 1970s’, says former Bank of England deputy Governor
Sir John’s a regular speaker on the UK economy and his views come at a time where it’s crucial for businesses and decision-makers to understand how the new government will navigate the changes brought about by Brexit. Find out how to book Sir John as a keynote speaker at your next event or conference or get in touch for more information.
Writing on the continued crisis in Ukraine, Dr John Hulsman, president and co-founder of the global political risk consultancy John C Hulsman Enterprises, has look at how and why sanctions have become a busted flush for the West, and why Putin holds most of the cards in Ukraine.
With Putin upping the ante by sending in military reinforcements across the border, the strategic tide has turned, bolstering separatists and forcing the West to reveal its hand. However, with war against Putin rightly off the table, and as truly crippling sanctions – originally threatened to be implemented within the week – are unlikely to happen as they could harm a sclerotic Europe at least as much as Russia, John argues that “Europe has made it very clear that it’s bluffing.”
John believes this situation has occurred because “Russia simply cares more about what happens in Ukraine than either the US or any of the major European powers. Moscow is therefore prepared to invest more to achieve its desired outcome.” Europe’s energy dependence on Russia remains it’s Achilles Heel, as John argues that at present “imposing Iran-style sanctions on Russia would certainly throw Europe into a desperate energy crisis.” Read the full report published in The Telegraph.
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Writing in today’s Telegraph newspaper, Lord Powell, one of the most influential foreign policy advisors of the Thatcher era, argues that the West has none of the moral sense that inspired foreign policy in the time of Margaret Thatcher. Moreover, he believes that “those who resent Western values will now feel encouraged to challenge our interests.”
This follows from the Margaret Thatcher Conference on Liberty yesterday, hosted by the Centre for Policy Studies, where Lord Powell put forward the question, “has the West gone soft?” He suggests that whilst it was unavoidable that the power and capability of our nation would fall, in relative terms, as others rose, “there has also been an avoidable decline in the West’s will to act – in short, our backbone.”
Lord Powell attributes a number of reasons for this, including the fact that is seems “notoriously hard to galvanise democratic societies to meet new threats in the wake of conflict.” More importantly, he adds, is that “the ability to convey a sense of the West’s destiny to lead in world affairs has evaporated.”
Click here to read the full article.
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Writing recently for the Telegraph, Roger Bootle, Managing Director of Capital Economics, believes that Britain could become the world’s fourth largest economy within decades, and that chances are the British economy will still be a major force in world affairs in 20 years’ time.
This follows the news that China is likely to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy faster than expected. Roger argues that such circumstances arise in part because China’s population is four times the size of the US population. Like China, he says, the Britain’s economic standing will be affected by population size.
Other factors, such as the upcoming Scottish Referendum, will also affect the future of the British economy. Roger asserts that if “Scotland votes for independence, the UK will immediately lose about 10pc of GDP and, accordingly, slip down the rankings quite a way. None of this would imply that people in the rest of the UK would be any worse off – at least not directly. Indeed, they may even be better off. But it would reduce the UK’s weight in the world.”
Click here to read on.
For information on Roger’s speaking availability, please contact our Managing Partner, Leo von Bülow-Quirk, at firstname.lastname@example.org or call +44 (0) 20 7792 8000
In an recent article for The Telegraph, Dr Gerard Lyons, chief economic adviser to Boris Johnson, explained that the message for Britain from the G20 is to prepare for stronger global growth.
Gerard argues that despite uncertainty, he remains positive about what lies ahead for the UK economy. He points out the reason for this uneasiness is that the global economy has faced three paradoxes in recent years:
- The policy paradox – where the policies many countries want to pursue in the long term are not those they have been able to implement in the near term.
- The regulatory paradox – in the wake of the crisis, economies tightened regulations, particularly in the financial sector.
- The balanced economy paradox – the policies each economy may want to pursue in isolation to get back into shape are not necessarily the policies you want all countries to follow at same time, lest demand weakens.
He goes on to say that as confusing this global picture may be, three messages of reason stand out for the UK.
Click here to read what these are.