Bobo Lo, a brilliant speaker on Russia vs. China, global energy supply and the shifting global order, launched his latest book at Chatham House earlier this month. Click here to hear him speak on “Russian and the New World Disorder” (Brookings, 2015).
In an op-ed for Reuters, Director of Chatham House Robin Niblett discusses what brought Putin to the bargaining table over Ukraine, and how to ensure he upholds the Minsk II agreement. Robin outlines three possible reasons:
- Ukrainian resistance.
- The growing impact of Western economic sanctions.
- The transatlantic debate over providing arms to Ukrainian forces.
However, Robin also notes that important to recognise that “this agreement is broadly similar to the September 2014 agreement and, given that it does not clearly advance Putin’s strategic goals, conflict may again resume.” With these concerns in mind, Robin suggests that the allied governments should consult quickly to clearly set Western expectations and demands:
- State that any future spread of the conflict beyond the existing cease-fire line would be seen as an attack on the political sovereignty of the government in Kiev.
- Make clear that they will not consider easing any of the current economic sanctions until the Minsk II agreement has been completed in full.
- Include unfettered inspections by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
- Ensure the Ukrainian government’s securing control of its border with Russia.
He goes on to argue that although military assistance by the West may not be any more effective than economic sanctions, “both policies are principally about imposing costs on Russia for its actions and accepting costs on North America, Europe and their close allies.”
Click here to read the full article.
For more information on how to book Robin Niblett as a keynote speaker for your conference or client event, please get in touch with Leo von Bülow-Quirk at email@example.com or call on +44 (0) 20 7792 8000.
With the reigniting of the war in Ukraine, Western leaders are battling over how to help end the conflict. Questions are being raised over whether the US should send arms to fight Russian-backed rebels. As a response to such thinking, John Mearsheimer, one of the foremost realist thinkers on international politics, has cautioned world leaders in an NY Times op-ed titled “Don’t Arm Ukraine.”
Despite a recent report from three leading American think tanks that endorses the sending of advanced weaponry to Kiev, John contends that this “will not rescue its army and will instead lead to an escalation in the fighting.” He goes on to say that such a step is “especially dangerous because Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons and is seeking to defend a vital strategic interest.”
Instead, John suggests that “the only way to solve the Ukraine crisis is diplomatically, not militarily.” This can be achieved by making Ukraine a neutral buffer state between Russia and NATO. John believes that the West should also work with Mr. Putin to rescue Ukraine’s economy, “a goal that is clearly in everyone’s interest.”
Click here to read the full article, or watch the video above for more.
For more information on how to book John Mearsheimer as a keynote speaker for your conference or client event, please get in touch with Leo von Bülow-Quirk at firstname.lastname@example.org or call on +44 (0) 20 7792 8000.
Writing for London’s City A.M., prolific foreign affairs commentator John Hulsman explores the supposed “conspiracy” behind Saudi Arabia’s oil war. John posits that it seems increasingly likely that the US and the Saudis have struck a secret deal to keep pumping and push down the price of oil.
Firstly, he notes that the Saudis are behaving decidedly oddly: the petro-kingdom has done nothing, nor until last week said anything, to counter the plummeting price in oil. An economics-only energy strategy should dictate that the Saudis reduce pumping to stabilise the global oil price, but this has not happened. John believes there are only two possible explanations as to what is going on:
- In the face of the challenge posed by US fracking, Riyadh may be ruthlessly defending its market share, while knobbling its great, emerging American rival in the process.
- Riyadh is hearkening back to the 1980s, when a then-secret deal to drive down the price of oil helped to economically destroy the Soviet Union.
John contends that the second option seems more viable. This is because it is being “openly whispered” that US secretary of state John Kerry met Saudi King Abdullah on 11 September this year, to strike a deal that would economically cripple – if for differing but complementary interests – their mutual enemies Iran and Russia.
Click here to read on.
For more information, or to book John Hulsman as a keynote speaker for your conference or event, please contact Alex Hickman at email@example.com or call 0044 (0) 20 7792 8004.
Writing in the Washington Post, Mitt Romey, 2012 US Presidential Candidate, argues that all reasons put forward for the decimation of the U.S. military defence are wrong, and that as “Russia invades, China bullies, Iran spins centrifuges, [and] the Islamic State threatens” there is still need for a mighty U.S. military.
For example, although some people believe that a multipolar world is preferable to one led by a strong United States, Romney counters by saying that the world would not see peace if these other pole nations were China, Russia and Iran. This is because “ultimately, one would seek to conquer the others, unleashing world war.”
Other arguments contend that if the United States withdrew its military strength from the world it would be left alone. However, Romney argues that the “history of the 20th century teaches that power-hungry tyrants ultimately feast on the appeasers.” Moreover, he believes that the U.S. “economy would be devastated by the disruption of trade routes, the turmoil in global markets and the tumult of conflict across the world.”
Romney puts forward that the real reason for shrinking the U.S. military is that “politicians, and many of the people who elect them, want to keep up spending here at home.” As the turbulent times set to continue, and with freedom and peace in the balance, he believes that the “Washington politicians are poised to make a historic decision.”
Click here to read the full op-ed.
For more information on how to book Mitt Romney as a keynote speaker for your conference or event, please contact Ellis Trevor at firstname.lastname@example.org or call +1 972 385 1021.
Mitt Romney was the 2012 Republican nominee for President of the United States. He was also a leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, which eventually went to John McCain. Elected Governor of Massachusetts in 2002, Mitt Romney presided over a dramatic reversal of state fortunes and a period of sustained economic expansion. Without raising taxes or increasing debt, he balanced the budget every year of his administration, closing a $3 billion budget gap inherited when he took office.
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Writing on the continued crisis in Ukraine, Dr John Hulsman, president and co-founder of the global political risk consultancy John C Hulsman Enterprises, has look at how and why sanctions have become a busted flush for the West, and why Putin holds most of the cards in Ukraine.
With Putin upping the ante by sending in military reinforcements across the border, the strategic tide has turned, bolstering separatists and forcing the West to reveal its hand. However, with war against Putin rightly off the table, and as truly crippling sanctions – originally threatened to be implemented within the week – are unlikely to happen as they could harm a sclerotic Europe at least as much as Russia, John argues that “Europe has made it very clear that it’s bluffing.”
John believes this situation has occurred because “Russia simply cares more about what happens in Ukraine than either the US or any of the major European powers. Moscow is therefore prepared to invest more to achieve its desired outcome.” Europe’s energy dependence on Russia remains it’s Achilles Heel, as John argues that at present “imposing Iran-style sanctions on Russia would certainly throw Europe into a desperate energy crisis.” Read the full report published in The Telegraph.