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Jonathan Fenby, an expert speaker on China, discusses the Hong Kongers march for democracy

Jonathan Fenby speaker

Writing in the Financial Times, Jonathan Fenby, journalist, author and expert speaker on China, explains that Beijing is threatening the future of its golden goose in its response to the Hong Kongers march for democracy.

Jonathan argues that there was always a central misunderstanding when it came to the policy of “one country, two systems”, after Hong Kong’s transfer to Chinese sovereignty 17 years ago last week. With central authorities stressing the first part of the formula, Jonathan describes how Hong Kongers resent Beijing’s continued attempts to exercise control of the Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) of Hong Kong through three ineffective chief executives selected by a small circle of electors approved by Beijing.

Resentment deepened by the prospect of the next choice of chief executive in 2017. In wake of this, 800,000 people voted in an unofficial online poll for a democratic system for selection of the next chief executive, and more than 100,000 joined a rally to call for democracy. With more protests planned, Jonathan warns that “if troops go to deal with Hong Kong protests it could get out of control.”

Click here to read the full article.

For more information, or to book Jonathan Fenby as a keynote speaker, please contact Leo von Bülow-Quirk at leo@chartwellspeaker.com or call 0044 (0) 20 7792 8000.

Chartwell in Hong Kong

We try and come through Hong Kong as often as possible as we have some great clients and many old friends here. Every time one sees change, and feels keenly the proximity of China’s vast economy and population. The energy you encounter here is what people mean by the centre of gravity shifting East.

Yesterday I watched the USS Bonhomme Richard, a 40,000-tonne warship, slip into Victoria Harbour and moor near the Pacific Club on Tsim Sha Tsui’s waterfront. The South China Morning Post reported on Wednesday that the warship’s arrival coincided with the the beginning of joint military exercises with the Philippines off Luzon, just 220km from the disputed Scarborough Shoal islets, also known as Huangyan Island – territory which is claimed by China. Tensions run high here, as China looks to build a blue water navy to protect its shipping lanes, and the US looks to pivot hard into its Asia Pacific neighbourhood.

Despite the brutal conflicts and instability of the Middle East, this region is now the crucible of world affairs. It is raw proof that politics follows the money – the shifting gravity. Follow the money, and you arrive somewhere around the South China Sea.

But economic competition is remorseless, and there is no time to savour success. The front page story on Wednesday’s South China Morning Post was the challenge Hong Kong now faces from the new free trade zone at Shanghai. “Hong Kong needs to develop more quickly or risk being left behind, warns tycoon (Li Ka-shing, Asia’s richest man and an HK champion) …”

Here’s more:

“The landmark project signals Beijing’s determination to raise the competitiveness of the mainland economy. It plans to elevate Shanghai’s role in economic reform by loosening controls on capital flows and expanding foreign investment in its free-trade zone, to officially open next week.

Asked if Shanghai would surpass Hong Kong in the next five to 10 years, Li replied: “I do not want to predict. But it will be faster than most people expect.

“It is just like you are running a 1,000-kilometre race. When you run one-third of the race, you see [your competitor] still behind you. But you are already surpassed [by your competitor] in the first half of the race. It is all about the speed.”

Welcome to the geopolitics of the 21st century.

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