Robin Niblett, Director of Chatham house and European affairs expert discusses the uncertainty over leadership in the US, the fragility of the EU and the UK in the wake of last week’s referendum and what’s next for the European Union’s Leaders.
Robin believes that the West’s loss of self-confidence could be a crucial factor in the fall out from Brexit as the EU looks to recover following the UK’s controversial decision to leave the union. In the interview above Niblett explains his rational in more detail.
One of the dilemmas we will now face, Robin explains, is is that the place which the EU now needs to organise its self around is Eurozone governance, however to do so would be likely to expose the loss of sovereign credibility. This will lead to a delicate balancing act by the French and the Germans, who are likely to focus attention away from more divisive issues such as migration and the eurozone crisis and towards people’s insecurities such as security, defence and terrorism rather than trying to create a grand new plan together. It begs the question – how will the West gain back its confidence?
For more information, or to book Robin for an event, please get in touch with his agent Gus Allen.
Writing for Project Syndicate, Kemal Derviş discusses the informal talks toward negotiating change, as a referendum on the UK’s continued EU membership, due to take place before the end of 2017.
Given the current dynamic of the UK’s relationship with the EU, Derviş believes changes are necessary, and careful negotiations must be made. He explains, “the UK and its European partners must address long-term issues relating to the changing shape of the Eurozone.” In order to function effectively, the Eurozone must pursue further integration. Derviş details the specific proposals including, a designated Eurozone budget, increased fiscal-policy coordination among members, and a eurozone finance minister.
Derviş encourages splitting Europe into two categories, “Clearly, the need for much greater Eurozone integration must be balanced against some countries’ strong desire to preserve more national sovereignty than is feasible in the monetary union. The best way to do this would be to divide Europe into two groups.” The two groups would consist of a non-euro group, and a euro group. He believes that establishing “two Europes in one,” rather than a “two-speed Europe,” would allow Europe to organise itself in a lasting way. He is optimistic that there is time for progress to be made by the time the UK’s referendum is held.
Click here to read the full article.
For more information, or to book Kemal Derviş as a speaker for your conference or event, please contact Alex Hickman at firstname.lastname@example.org or call 0044 (0) 20 7792 8004.
Writing for The Times, prize-winning journalist Matt Ridley argues that “Europe must embrace free enterprise”, as European economic growth rates continue to stagnate.
Describing the eurozone as “flat and teetering on the brink of debilitating deflation”, Matt demonstrates that public spending and dirigisme to stimulate growth does not work, while the “Anglo-Saxon” model of economic management – through open markets and deregulation – has proven to unleash growth.
Matt explains that “as figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development confirm, a 10 per cent increase in public spending produces a 0.5-1 per cent decrease in growth rates. The encouragement of free enterprise is what has always brought growth, from ancient Phoenicia to modern Mauritius, from Renaissance Italy to Silicon Valley.”
He goes on to say that “Entire continents teach the same lesson. South America and now Africa have both confirmed the hypothesis that state-directed commerce leads to stagnation while free enterprise causes rapid growth.”
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For more information, or to book Matt Ridley as a speaker for your conference or event, please contact Alex Hickman at email@example.com or call 0044 (0) 20 7792 8004.
Following on from the highly rated (in both London and the US) western decline piece, Dr John Hulsman, senior columnist for London-based newspaper City A.M., points the finger squarely at Europe’s infantilisation as the primary culprit for this sorry state of current affairs.
John notes that popularity for a less activist foreign policy is soaring, as the U.S. public has had it with being the world’s policeman. He goes on to say that whilst this can be seen as a response to the mess made during the misguided presidency of George W Bush, “Europe’s seven-decade holiday from history is primarily to blame for the decline of the West. It has infantilised its elites, making them unable to understand even the rudiments of the power politics that still do and always will drive foreign policy.”
As such John calls for investors to beware; the fruitfulness of the transatlantic relationship may decline as the U.S. rethinks its foreign policy strategy, following the perception that Europe is no longer a force to be reckoned with.
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For information on John’s speaking availability, please contact our Managing Partner, Leo von Bülow-Quirk, at firstname.lastname@example.org or call +44 (0) 20 7792 8000
Former Obama For America CTO Harper Reed will be over in Europe in November. Harper, whose areas of expertise include building tech teams, building online communities and how to use big data is attending the f.ounders conference in Dublin and then speaking in Germany. Contact me on +44(0)2077928004 if you’d like to try and book him while he is over from Chicago.
Chairman and co-founder of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) David Marsh is due to release his fifth book in August this year. In ‘Europe’s Deadlock: How the Euro Crisis Could be Solved – and Why is Won’t Happen’, published by Yale, David discusses why the Eurozone’s problems continue to remain unresolved. Yale describe the book as a “short yet devastating analysis.”
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