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Watch Keyu Jin, an expert speaker on the Chinese economy, discuss the future impact of China’s financial reforms

Keyu Jin speakerDr Keyu Jin, a Lecturer in the Department of Economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), and an advisor to the Chinese Government’s National Development and Reform Commission (NRDC) in Beijing, delivered a public lecture at the LSE to discuss the impact of China’s financial reforms.

Keyu raises some concerns that face the Chinese economy and feature strongly in the media, namely that there are signs of banking fragility, industrial production is slowly down, debt levels are rising, and property markets are adjusting downwardly. She also argues that we can’t ignore the massive capital outflows, potential loss of reserves, a major potential devaluation of the renminbi, and anaemic growth.

However, she fears that the economic data presented may be unreliable, suggesting that the situation may be even worse than it is. In her talk, Keyu aims to highlight the fundamental challenges facing the Chinese economy; the issues mentioned above may simply be symptoms are a more deep rooted problem. What will the next wave of economic reforms offer? Are there critical reforms that can maintain growth rates? Watch the video above for her insights.

To download an audio version of the podcast, click here.

For more information, or to book Keyu Jin as a keynote speaker for your conference or event, please contact Leo von Bülow-Quirk at leo@chartwellspeakers.com or call 0044 (0) 20 7792 8000.

Watch Cornell Professor Eswar Prasad discuss the current state of the Chinese economy on “Bloomberg Surveillance”

Eswar Prasad speakerSpeaking on “Bloomberg Surveillance”, Eswar Prasad – a professor in the Dyson School at Cornell University, former head of the IMF’s China Division and the author of “The Dollar Trap” – offers his valuable insights on the state of the Chinese economy.

Eswar explains that although China’s manufacturing sector is currently not performing well – giving an impression that the economy is experiencing a rough patch – there are some strengths, particularly in the services sector. He goes on to point out some of the challenges facing the Chinese government, namely the need to crack down on inconsistent corporate governance.

Watch the video above for more, or click here to read an op-ed by Eswar in the New York Times, titled “China’s Fitful Economic Reforms”.

For more information on how to book Eswar Prasad as a speaker for your conference or event, please contact Leo von Bülow-Quirk at leo@chartwellspeakers.com or call 0044 (0) 20 7792 8000.

Keyu Jin discusses economic “rebalancing” in China

Writing in Project Syndicate, Keyu Jin, discusses the economic “rebalancing” Chinese leaders have been pursuing for several years. The country’s current growth model is to be replaced by one based on services and domestic consumption, which she believes is a distant prospect.

One reason Chinese households are unlikely to increase their spending is the imperative faced by China’s older workers to save for retirement. However, Jin explains that after more than three decades of the one child policy, retirees cannot expect as much support, and China’s pension system lacks the strength to pick up the slack. Another reason China’s households will avoid spending, is because their income’s share of GDP has been falling.

Jin describes two major problems, “First, China’s growth model is distorted, as it emphasises investment over employment growth and depends partly on wage suppression to subsidise production and exports. Second, financial repression has capped Chinese households’ savings at about a zero real rate of return.”

Ultimately, Jin doesn’t believe that China’s quest for higher domestic consumption is destined to fail, as China’s younger generation is optimistic about the future, and aware of their quality of life. They are more inclined than their parents to spend on services and nondurable goods. She explains that when they reach middle age, China’s consumption landscape may be completely different. In the meantime, “China will need to patient, recognising that the current generation is simply too fixated on saving to provide the kind of surge in consumption that is needed.”

Click here to read the full article.

For more information, or to book Keyu Jin as a keynote speaker for your conference or event, please contact Leo von Bülow-Quirk at leo@chartwellspeakers.com or call 0044 (0) 20 7792 8000.

LSE Lecturer Keyu Jin on the role consumers play in rebalancing China’s economy

Keyu Jin speakerSpeaking on “Bloomberg Surveillance”, London School of Economics Lecturer Keyu Jin and Larry Hatheway, chief economist at Gam Holding, talk about the role consumers play in rebalancing China’s economy and the business prospects for the UK and China.

Keyu argues that she’s wary to talk about rebalancing towards consumption, when seeing that the Chinese household share of GDP is falling from 70% to 60%, compared to other countries which stay at a constant 80%. By repressing the household, Keyu believes that it’s difficult to stimulate Chinese consumption, regardless of the expansionary policies that are being implemented.

For more information, or to book Keyu Jin as a keynote speaker for your conference or event, please contact Leo von Bülow-Quirk at leo@chartwellspeakers.com or call 0044 (0) 20 7792 8000.

Adair Turner on “Debt Déjà Vu”

Adair Turner SpeakerWriting for Project Syndicate, Adair Turner, Chairman of the Institute of New Economic Thinking discusses debt, and the “failure to grasp the strength and global nature of the deflationary forces now shaping the economy.”

He explains that we are in a trap where debt burdens shift among sectors and countries, as a result of the debt used to fund real-estate investment and construction. In the United States and several European countries, excessive debt creation before 2008 was followed by efforts at private deleveraging, initially offset by large government budget deficits.

After a collapsing external demand in late 2008, Chinese growth and employment was threatened, resulting in the Chinese government unleashing a massive credit-fueled construction boom. Turner states, “Within China, the consequences for growth may be less dire than some commentators fear: a rapidly tightening labor market is boosting real wages; household consumption is growing strongly; and a buoyant services sector is helping to create ten million new jobs per year.” But for the rest of the world’s economy, the consequences of the slowdown in China’s construction and industrial sectors are profound, and the QE alone cannot stimulate enough demand in a world where other major economies are facing the same challenges.

Turner concludes, “Seven years after 2008, global leverage is higher than ever, and aggregate global demand is still insufficient to drive robust growth. More radical policies – such as major debt write-downs or increased fiscal deficits financed by permanent monetization – will be required to increase global demand, rather than simply shift it around.”

Click here to read the full article.

For more information, or to book Adair Turner as a keynote speaker for your conference or event, please contact Leo von Bülow-Quirk at leo@chartwellspeakers.com or call 0044 (0) 20 7792 8000.

BRICS economist Jim O’Neill outlines three good reasons to be bullish on China in 2015

Jim O'Neill speakerWriting for Bloomberg View, Jim O’Neill, the former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management International, has argued that it is “ridiculous” to be bearish on China in 2015, commenting that there is a big year ahead for the economy.

In comparison to his earlier predictions of the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – it is the latter economy that has met Jim’s expectations five years on. He explains that “assuming that China’s soon-to-be-published fourth-quarter gross domestic product number will come in at or close to 7.3 percent, as many experts assume, then from 2011 to 2014, China will have averaged real GDP growth of just less than 8 percent.”

Jim offers three basic reasons to be bullish on China:

  1. First, the collapse of crude oil prices will boost consumers’ real incomes, helping them play a larger role in the economy.
  2. Second, even though property prices have recently stalled and begun to fall, China will probably avoid a serious credit crunch, partly because Chinese policy makers have been more serious about restraining prices before they can collapse.
  3. A third reason to be optimistic is the subdued nature of inflation in China. This allows for more accommodative monetary policy going forward.

Jim notes that taken together, “these factors will make it easier for China to rebalance its economy — by raising wages, increasing property-ownership rights for urban migrants and reforming pension systems.”

Click here to read the full article, or watch this interview on Bloomberg for more.

For more information, or to book Jim O’Neill as a keynote speaker for your conference or event, please contact Alex Hickman at alex@chartwellspeakers.com or call 0044 (0) 20 7792 8004.

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