Robin Niblett, Director of Chatham house and European affairs expert discusses the uncertainty over leadership in the US, the fragility of the EU and the UK in the wake of last week’s referendum and what’s next for the European Union’s Leaders.
Robin believes that the West’s loss of self-confidence could be a crucial factor in the fall out from Brexit as the EU looks to recover following the UK’s controversial decision to leave the union. In the interview above Niblett explains his rational in more detail.
One of the dilemmas we will now face, Robin explains, is is that the place which the EU now needs to organise its self around is Eurozone governance, however to do so would be likely to expose the loss of sovereign credibility. This will lead to a delicate balancing act by the French and the Germans, who are likely to focus attention away from more divisive issues such as migration and the eurozone crisis and towards people’s insecurities such as security, defence and terrorism rather than trying to create a grand new plan together. It begs the question – how will the West gain back its confidence?
For more information, or to book Robin for an event, please get in touch with his agent Gus Allen.
Dr Gerard Lyons, Senior Economic Advisor to Boris Johnson lays out his case for Britain leaving the EU in his new book, The UK Referendum: An Easy Guide to Leaving the EU. In this accessible E-book, Gerard analyses the history of the relationship between the UK and the EU and concludes that the benefits that we once reaped from the arrangement are no longer relevant in today’s world.
Lyons describes the landscape of a UK outside of the EU, arguing a point by point case for the advantages which we will see as a result. For Leave voters, this book offers a compelling justification of their position, for Remain voters, it offers a comprehensive review of the other side’s point of view. For those still undecided, it offers a crucial piece of the puzzle to help make a decision on what is being described as the most important democratic decision in a generation.
The book is now available to buy for £1.99 on Kindle.
Months of tense negotiations over Greece’s debt crisis have come to a head, with capital controls being imposed and banks closed throughout the country to stave off a full-blown financial implosion. Markets are jittery at the prospect of contagion hitting the so-called “periphery” countries.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister David Cameron is laying the groundwork to re-negotiate the UK’s membership of the EU, raising fundamental questions about the EU’s membership, constitutional make-up and ideological purpose.
The prospect of Grexit and Brexit are shaking the European project, and have the potential to shake the world.
Here is Chartwell’s pick of expert speakers who can help your business navigate the impact of the European crisis on the global economic and geopolitical landscape.
PETER BOFINGER: Member of Germany’s elite Council of Economic Experts.
ANDERS BORG: Former Swedish Finance Minister.
NICOS CHRISTODOULAKIS: Former Greek Minister of the Economy and Finance.
JOSCHKA FISCHER: Former Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor of Germany.
PIPPA MALMGREN: Expert on the interaction between markets and politics.
For more information, or to book any of these speakers, please contact Leo von Bülow-Quirk at email@example.com, or on 0044 (0) 20 7792 8000.
Wolfgang Münchau is considered one of the world’s foremost experts on the Eurozone. Writing for Prospect Magazine, he argues that whilst there is a case for Britain remaining a member of the European Union, it has little to do with economics.
Wolfgang counters the common economic arguments for staying in, and demonstrates that relying on insecure arguments serves nobody. For example, whilst “The single market has a certain ‘motherhood and apple pie’ quality—it is very hard to be against it”, it is not known how much is the single market really worth. Wolfgang points out that EU-wide productivity has been in decline since the official start date of the single market in 1992, and as such “the single market is not visible in the macro statistics.”
He concedes that leaving would present risks, but none compelling enough to make the case for a vote to stay in. “No matter what happens,” Wolfgang contends, “Britain’s future relationship with the EU is going to be one of semi-detachment.”
Click here to read a summary of his key arguments.
What’s a war game?
It’s a moderated simulation during which a group of carefully briefed individuals play out a scenario, with the objective of enhancing their ability to make correct decisions in the real world. The concept was first developed in Washington DC to help US government departments like the State Department and the CIA think creatively through strategic challenges facing the United States.
Introducing Dr John Hulsman, one of the world’s leading War Gamers
Former Washington DC insider John Hulsman is an expert commentator on the political economy of the EU, US, emerging markets, and the Middle East. Now based in Germany, he runs a political risk consulting firm.
John is a sought-after War Game facilitator and has run games in London, Washington, Berlin and New Dehli. He is the author of the ‘hinge point’ gaming format.
What type of scenario can it analyse?
War Games are ideally suited for analysing likely political outcomes – from Brexit to the balance of power in Asia Pacific, the struggle against ISIS and the impact of low gas prices. The hinge point game is flexible enough to illuminate potential outcomes in a wide range of contexts.
Use a War Game to test your business strategy
John’s ‘hinge point’ simulations are powerful, and under-used, business tools. Ideally suited for board off-sites and annual strategy conferences, they enable decision-makers to accurately explore how a range of strategic options might actually impact on their business.
I’d be delighted to tell you more about this unique and powerful event experience.
Click here for further information.
For more information, or to book John Hulsman as a speaker for your conference or event, please contact Alex Hickman at firstname.lastname@example.org or call 0044 (0) 20 7792 8004.