Writing recently for the Telegraph, Roger Bootle, Managing Director of Capital Economics, believes that Britain could become the world’s fourth largest economy within decades, and that chances are the British economy will still be a major force in world affairs in 20 years’ time.
This follows the news that China is likely to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy faster than expected. Roger argues that such circumstances arise in part because China’s population is four times the size of the US population. Like China, he says, the Britain’s economic standing will be affected by population size.
Other factors, such as the upcoming Scottish Referendum, will also affect the future of the British economy. Roger asserts that if “Scotland votes for independence, the UK will immediately lose about 10pc of GDP and, accordingly, slip down the rankings quite a way. None of this would imply that people in the rest of the UK would be any worse off – at least not directly. Indeed, they may even be better off. But it would reduce the UK’s weight in the world.”
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