This Spectator interview of Ruchir Sharma (4 May) is worth reading. Here’s more on Ruchir’s argument that we need to (i) adopt more realistic expectations about growth markets which are in line with previous trends and (ii) start being more selective in how we go about spotting winners and losers:
1) Is it time to lose faith in the BRICs?
We need to stop thinking in BRIC terms. The whole idea of lumping emerging markets into catch-all categories, under increasingly silly acronyms, has run out of control. My favourite is CIVETS — a reference to an exotic cat. The BRIC nations are the largest emerging markets, but other than that they have very little in common. They have to be analysed individually — but yes, an individual analysis of Brazil, Russia, and China suggests all are likely to undershoot expectations in the next five to ten years, and that India is a borderline case.
I’m meeting up with Ruchir when I’m in New York later in the month. Lots to talk about.