On the front cover of today’s Financial Times (FT), James Kynge, the FT’s Emerging Markets Editor, and Chris Giles, the FT’s Economics Editor, warned that global growth is being threatened by “a slow growth era” in emerging markets (EM), its lowest ebb since the aftermath of the financial crisis.
Data from 19 large emerging economies collated by research firm Capital Economics show that industrial output in August and consumer spending in the second quarter fell to their lowest levels since 2009. Export growth in August also plunged. James commented that such concerns were “due to a combination of China’s fading dynamism, a sputtering performance in eastern Europe and Latin America’s slowdown.”
Whilst emerging Asia remains the most resilient of the large EM areas, George Magnus, senior adviser to UBS and former chief economist, said: “It is now clear that the exceptional acceleration in emerging market growth between 2006 and 2012 is over,” noting that the IMF has revised downward its forecasts for EM growth on six occasions since late 2011.
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